Texas Instruments and the Efficiency of the Analog Moat
TXN maintains a 31.7% ROIC and 47.5% operating margins despite a -3.19% FCF spread to Treasuries. Analyzing the 26.1x multiple and the buyback quality audit.
Articles
Home Depot and the Mathematics of Maintenance
Auditing HD’s 22.1% ROIC against a 4.93% risk-free rate. While operating margins compress to 12.7%, the $10.2B real FCF suggests a buyback machine in transition.
Lockheed Martin and the Compounding Machine
LMT trades at 19.1x forward earnings with a 28.9% ROIC, outperforming the Nasdaq’s 3.4% weekly slide as dealer gamma balances against a $130B backlog.
Coinbase and the Safety of Being Supervised
$6.3 billion Binance heist highlights the premium on regulated custody as COIN trades at 45.6x Forward P/E with a 7.35% FCF yield.
ExxonMobil and the Cost of Being Popular (XOM)
ExxonMobil beats Q3 estimates on a refining surge, but a 2.71% FCF yield sits 2.24% below the 10-Year Treasury, testing the limits of institutional patience.
The Two Hundred Billion Dollar Greeting
“Two hundred billion dollars in CapEx, and it still starts every email with ‘Hope this finds you well.’”
Morning Blast: AbbVie and the Patent Cliff Defiance
AbbVie trades up 2.4% pre-market at $298.00 on Skyrizi momentum, sporting a 40.0% operating margin and 34.9% ROIC ahead of Q3 prints.
NVIDIA and the Mandatory GDP Upgrade
With a -4.18% FCF spread against Treasuries and $92B in CapEx, NVIDIA shifts from a tech trade to a structural utility driving US economic growth.
Mastercard and the Negative Yield Spread Trap
Mastercard (MA) posted a strong Q3 beat, but a -1.93% FCF yield spread against sovereign bonds suggests the market is ignoring significant duration risk.
ARKK and the Art of Selling Your Winners
Cathie Wood dumps TSMC and AMD to double down on Robinhood and flying taxis while the 10-Year Treasury yield sits at 5.10 percent.